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OECD. (2006). “Projecting OECD health and long-term care expenditures. What are the main drivers?” Economics Department Working Papers, No. 477. Paris: Organisation for Co-Operation and Development. Retrieved July 19, 2006, from:
http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/57/7/36085940.pdf
Abstract
This paper proposes a comprehensive framework for projecting public heath and long-term care expenditures. Notably, it considers the impact of demographic and non-demographic effects for both health and long-term care. Compared with other studies, the paper extends the demographic drivers by incorporating death-related costs and the health status of the population. Concerning non-demographic drivers of health care, the projection method accounts for income elasticity and a residual effect of technology and relative prices. For long-term care, the effects of increased labour participation, reducing informal care, and wage inflation are taken into account. Using this integrated approach, public health and long-term care expenditure are projected for all OECD countries for the years 2025 and 2050. Alternative scenarios are simulated, in particular a 'cost-pressure' and 'cost-containment' scenario, together with sensitivity analysis. Depending on the scenarios, the combined health and long-term care spending is projected to increase on average across OECD countries in the range of 3.5 to 6 percentage points of GDP for the period 2005-2050 (abstract from p. 2 of report).
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